ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 212010 
SPC MCD 212010 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...northeastern New
Mexico...and the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 212010Z - 212245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
across the area this afternoon and evening posing an initial threat
for hail and eventually evolving into a wind threat.  The severe
threat appears too marginal and isolated to warrant a severe
thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have already initiated across
the area ahead of a southward-moving midlevel shortwave trough. 
While instability (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) and shear (effective
bulk shear around 25 knots) are modest, initial multicell modes may
support hail (0.75-1.25 in) and convective gusts (45-60 mph). 
Eventually cold pool mergers are expected to lead to some degree of
upscale growth, especially across northeastern New Mexico, where
isolated severe gusts (55-65 mph) may be possible if an organized
convective cluster develops.  A severe thunderstorm watch is
unlikely given the isolated and marginal nature of the severe
threat.

..Jirak/Smith.. 07/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35200520 36190528 37570525 37660523 38350518 38890510
            39210483 39250412 38900338 38600278 38130232 37010198
            36280186 35480188 35100202 34910237 34730315 34620362
            34740493 35200520 

NNNN