ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 290539 
SPC MCD 290539 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1724
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Areas affected...southeast SD...northeast NE and western IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 290539Z - 290745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts may remain possible
through the pre-dawn hours early this morning with a pair of
slow-moving supercells over the Mid-Missouri Valley.

DISCUSSION...In between a broader MCV over northeast IA and a
smaller MCV in central SD, a pair of slow-moving supercells have
developed along the southeast SD/northeast NE border area. This
activity is within a zone of lower-level warm theta-e advection,
with increasingly pronounced MLCIN in the warm-moist sector to its
south-southwest. Most guidance suggests that the advection regime
should gradually subside within this corridor over the next several
hours. But given the upstream MCV over central SD moving about twice
as fast as these storms, it is plausible that a merging may occur
during the next few hours. One of the 00Z NSSL-MPAS runs, which
appears to have a decent handle on both convective areas, supports
this scenario. This could result in the initial primary threat of
large hail, transitioning to more of a severe wind threat later this
morning.

..Grams/Guyer.. 07/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   42189836 42849952 43409933 43749866 43109704 42629568
            42039537 41509573 41669697 42189836 

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