ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 291909 SPC MCD 291909 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-292115- Mesoscale Discussion 1725 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Alabama to central Georgia and the Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291909Z - 292115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms will continue to spread across portions of Alabama, Georgia, and parts of the Carolinas through the afternoon hours. A few stronger to severe thunderstorms are possible and will mainly pose a damaging wind threat. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar composites across AL, GA, and SC show widespread thunderstorm development as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s (and even low 90s in some locations) within a very moist environment (mid to upper 70s dewpoints), resulting in the erosion of any lingering SBCIN. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggests that portions of southeast AL into southwest and central GA currently have the more conducive environment for strong to severe thunderstorms with MLLCLs between 1-2 km, theta-e deficits above 30 K, and SBCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Very weak mid/upper-level flow will continue to favor pulse cellular convection and multi-cell clusters with relatively short longevity. However, these thermodynamic conditions should be favorable for strong downburst winds that may reach 50-60 mph. To the northeast across northeast GA and SC, more linear convection has developed along a residual outflow boundary with consolidating cold pools noted in regional velocity data. While the thermodynamic environment is not currently as favorable for strong/severe downbursts as further southwest, continued daytime heating should gradually improve low-level lapse rates through mid/late afternoon, resulting in an increasing damaging wind threat. However, given the poor deep-layer wind shear, the overall severity of these lines/clusters will remain limited and precludes watch issuance. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31128345 30868398 30838441 30928509 31138561 31458605 31818629 32358625 32808606 33078548 33208494 33298450 33378411 33758351 34138295 34828222 35168178 35318125 35198063 34948037 34518034 33898063 33208125 32588167 32188213 31838256 31578291 31308323 31128345 NNNN