ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 292309 SPC MCD 292309 SDZ000-NEZ000-300045- Mesoscale Discussion 1730 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/southern South Dakota and far north-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561... Valid 292309Z - 300045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561 continues. SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will continue with the most intense thunderstorms across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KUDX indicates semi-discrete, splitting supercells generally tracking eastward across central/southern SD into far north-central NE this evening. These storms have been producing 60-65 mph gusts and hail up to 1.75 inches. Moderately unstable surface-based inflow -- characterized by upper 80s/lower 90s temperatures amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints should support the maintenance or even intensification of these storms with eastward extent. Long/mostly straight hodographs (with some low-level clockwise curvature) should favor a continuation of splitting, semi-discrete supercells in the near-term. These storms will be capable of producing locally severe gusts near 75 mph and very large hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. In the near-term, this is especially the case with a dominant right-mover supercell cluster moving across portions of Jones and Mellette Counties, SD. While less certain, the aforementioned hodograph structure and semi-discrete supercell mode may support a brief tornado as well. With time, there may be a tendency for some of these storms to grow upscale as they intercept the richer boundary-layer moisture with eastward extent. This would favor an increasing damaging-wind risk. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43980089 44500137 44790137 45000113 45050062 45040000 44699938 43969912 43129909 42839948 42730020 42810080 42980096 43980089 NNNN