ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 301749
SPC MCD 301749
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-301945-
Mesoscale Discussion 1745
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024
Areas affected...far southeast Iowa...northeast Missouri...and
west-central IL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568...
Valid 301749Z - 301945Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568
continues.
SUMMARY...Additional storm development is possible across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 268 this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...The earlier bowing cluster of storms across Iowa has
become disorganized early this afternoon. The strongest cell remains
on the northern flank crossing into west-central IL. The downstream
airmass was heavily impacted by early morning convection. Airmass
recovery is well underway, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, but
low-level inhibition will likely persist, perhaps limiting severe
potential with eastward extent.
Two outflow boundaries are apparent in observed satellite this
afternoon. A more west to east oriented boundary across northern MO,
related to the ongoing Iowa cluster. Another boundary is oriented
northwest to southeast across MO and intersects the northern
boundary. Deepening cumulus has been noted along both boundaries as
strong heating and dewpoints increasing into the 70s F has resulted
in a corridor of moderate to strong instability. Additional
convection appears likely to develop first near the intersections of
these outflow boundaries and perhaps re-organize into a
southeastward-advancing cluster. Given this possibility, Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 568 continues across northeast MO and
west-central IL. Depending on convective trends, downstream watch
issuance may be necessary later this afternoon.
..Leitman.. 07/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40629243 41199134 41289105 40999065 40269038 39579032
39449029 39009064 38799102 38699165 39069275 39509335
40359386 40549357 40629243
NNNN