ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 301856 
SPC MCD 301856 
ILZ000-MOZ000-302100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1746
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Areas affected...eastern Missouri into southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 301856Z - 302100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing this afternoon across
eastern Missouri into southern Illinois. Area is being monitored for
possible watch issuance downstream from Severe Thunderstorm Watch
568. Damaging winds may accompany any storms that develop into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...While the earlier organized cluster of storms across
Iowa has largely dissipated, some re-intensification on the southern
flank has been noted across west-central IL over the past 30 minutes
or so. Additional convection has developed near the intersection of
outflow boundaries across northern MO. The downstream airmass across
east-central MO into southern IL is characterized by temperatures
near 90 F and dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates. This is contributing to a corridor of moderate
to strong instability, with the gradient of stronger instability
oriented northwest to southeast from northern MO into southern IL.
This should support robust thunderstorm updrafts given greater than
40 kt effective shear magnitudes. 

Uncertainty remains regarding convective coverage and evolution
given previous rounds of convection. However, the overall
environment should support severe gust potential with any convection
that develops. This area is being monitored for watch issuance
within the next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39909307 39919188 40049126 40319060 40279027 39808948
            38788842 38228813 37698819 37448855 37378899 37418985
            38139171 38869301 39319355 39589363 39909307 

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