ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 311804 SPC MCD 311804 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-312000- Mesoscale Discussion 1767 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...Southern Georgia and adjacent portions of far southeast Alabama and northern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311804Z - 312000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-afternoon across southern Georgia and adjacent portions of far southeast Alabama into northern Florida. Weak wind shear will limit the overall severe weather potential and preclude the need for a watch, but sporadic damaging winds will be possible. DISCUSSION...Deep convective initiation is well underway across far southeast AL into southern GA as surface-based parcels begin to hit their convective temperatures within a zone of weak low-level ascent associated with a diffuse surface trough axis. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggest that SBCAPE values upwards of 4000-5000 J/kg are in place across southern GA, which should support multiple intense updrafts. However, regional VWPs are sampling very weak mid and upper-level winds (generally 15 knots or less), which will promote single cells initially with a tendency for clustering as convection pushes slowly southeast through the afternoon. The lack of appreciable shear will limit the potential for a more widespread/organized severe threat, but the extreme buoyancy, high PWAT values (generally around 2.0 inches), and steepening low-level lapse rates will promote strong downbursts with sporadic damaging wind gusts (generally between 45-60 mph). A somewhat more focused corridor of damaging wind potential may emerge across southern GA later this afternoon if a more consolidated cluster can become established; however, such a cluster would primarily be driven by cold-pool propagation, which has inherently low predictability. As such, watch issuance is not expected. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 32608495 32758407 32588312 32528295 32068172 31888153 31668146 31338147 31008159 30638193 30378256 30288347 30288350 30298380 30348397 31328535 31628548 31968548 32188536 32478515 32608495 NNNN