ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 311921 
SPC MCD 311921 
IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-312115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1769
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...portions of south-central and southeast NE into
north-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 311921Z - 312115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase this afternoon. Damaging
gusts and large hail are expected into this evening. Timing is a bit
uncertain, but a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in
the next hour.

DISCUSSION...A band of convection has persisted for much of the day
near a surface front draped across NE into northwest KS. Cloudiness
related to this convection has likely delayed erosion of midlevel
capping. However, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to
upper 90s F amid steep midlevel lapse rates and dewpoints in the mid
70s F. This is resulting in a corridor of strong to extreme
instability. Effective shear magnitudes continue to increase across
the region as the upper trough ejects into the northern/central
Plains. This should also aid in weakening capping with time into
late afternoon. 

Recent 7 km CAPPI shows deepening/intensifying cores across
south-central NE over the past 30-60 minutes. The expectation is
that convection will gradually increase over the next couple of
hours. While initial convection may be elevated, large hail and
damaging gusts will still be possible. With time, the damaging wind
risk will increase toward evening with a possible bowing MCS
developing over southeast NE. While timing remains a bit uncertain,
a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41139899 41649771 41629614 41119584 40349580 39889626
            39459740 39359867 39389943 39529994 39990009 40350012
            40699972 41139899 

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