ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 311947 
SPC MCD 311947 
KYZ000-INZ000-312145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1770
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...far southern Indiana into central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 580...

Valid 311947Z - 312145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 580
continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging/severe wind threat should remain focused
across southern Indiana into central Kentucky for the next few hours
as a consolidated cold pool becomes established.

DISCUSSION...A consolidating cold pool is becoming evident in recent
KLVX velocity imagery roughly along the OH River. This may be the
start of a somewhat more organized MCS that will pose a relatively
focused wind threat to areas downstream - namely central KY. To the
southeast of the developing MCS, a more broken,
meridionally-oriented, line of disorganized convection is
delineating the western edge of a residual cold pool from prior
convection where temperatures remain in the 70s and stable billow
clouds are noted in visible imagery. As such, the developing MCS
will likely continue to propagate south/southeast where buoyancy
remains very favorable for convective maintenance (MLCAPE values in
the 2000-3000 J/kg range). Limited line-orthogonal deep-layer wind
shear may be a modulating factor to overall convective intensity
given west/northwest deep-layer wind shear vectors, but the
high-CAPE environment and surging cold pool should continue to
support a damaging/severe wind threat for the next few hours.

..Moore.. 07/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...

LAT...LON   38058673 38258662 38388630 38408588 38338555 38208528
            37318465 37218483 37138507 37078544 37078574 37108610
            37218636 38058673 

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