ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 312212 
SPC MCD 312212 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-010015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...Parts of southwestern IA...northwestern MO...and
northeastern into central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 312212Z - 010015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued within
the next hour or two, as clusters of severe storms continue
eastward. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the main
concerns.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of severe storms are ongoing across
southeastern NE into northern KS as of 22Z -- ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front. 40-50 kt of effective shear and strong
to extreme surface-based instability are supporting a mix of
organized multicells and supercell clusters, which have produced
severe wind gusts upwards of 65-85 mph and large hail in the
1.5-1.75 inch range (one isolated report of 4 inches in Phillips
County, KS earlier). 

Over the next several hours, these storms will continue tracking
eastward within a favorable environment for continued organized
storms, including organized upscale-growing multicells and supercell
clusters. Severe wind gusts (65-85 mph) and very large hail to
around 2.5 inches will be the main concerns. A watch will likely be
issued within an hour or two.

..Weinman/Smith.. 07/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39049944 39179888 39469759 39809670 40369582 40929544
            41569548 41839493 41889421 41709352 41219327 40499319
            39629360 39089444 38239708 38059831 38069915 38559982
            38799987 39049944 

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