ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 312232 
SPC MCD 312232 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-010000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1774
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Panhandle into the eastern
Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 312232Z - 010000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will be capable of
producing locally severe downbursts (55-65 mph) and marginally
severe hail (around 1 inch) through around 00Z.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving along/immediately
ahead of a lee trough/dryline feature -- where temperatures have
warmed into the lower 100s F amid lower 60s dewpoints. Associated
steep low-level lapse rates and moderate surface-based instability
will support locally severe downbursts (55-65 mph) and perhaps an
instance or two of hail around 1 inch. Given around 25 kt of
deep-layer shear (per AMA VWP and latest mesoanalysis), storm
longevity should be limited, and the overall severe threat should
remain fairly isolated.

..Weinman/Smith.. 07/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35140292 35440248 36120178 36770096 36800055 36570020
            36110032 35710071 34350253 34240288 34430326 34780325
            35140292 

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