ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 010217 
SPC MCD 010217 
MOZ000-KSZ000-010345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern Kansas and northwestern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 010217Z - 010345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for
portions of northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri in the
near-term. Severe storms capable of producing damaging winds will
continue eastward into the area.

DISCUSSION...An MCS is tracking eastward across northeastern KS at
around 40 kt. These storms and related outflow have recently
produced 60-70 mph wind gusts, and VWP data from KTWX recently
sampled a 53 kt rear-inflow jet. Despite these storms being slightly
behind the leading edge of a large outflow boundary extending across
the area, extreme surface-based buoyancy (see TOP 00Z sounding) and
30 to 40 kt of deep-layer shear oblique to the line will favor
continued organization and intensity with eastward extent into
northwestern MO. The primary concern is 70-80 mph wind gusts. 

A watch will likely be issued in the near-term parts of the area.

..Weinman/Smith.. 08/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38409536 39219552 39939531 40049501 40069432 39999348
            39709317 38709328 38259377 38159452 38199520 38409536 

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