ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 010719 
SPC MCD 010719 
ILZ000-MOZ000-010845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Areas affected...east-central MO into central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 010719Z - 010845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional potential exists for an increase in strong to
severe gusts from 50-65 mph across a part of the Mid-Mississippi
Valley into central Illinois. If realized, the threat may only last
for a couple hours.

DISCUSSION...An uptick in deep convection, largely displaced west of
a leading outflow boundary, occurred about 30 minutes ago across a
part of northeast MO, seemingly associated with a subtle MCV moving
east. A gust of 48 mph was recently measured at the Columbia, MO
ASOS where the trailing portion of outflow from this cluster
overtook the lead outflow from a separate cluster of deep
convection, now over west-central IL. As this northeast MO cluster
merges into the leading cluster in west-central IL, an increase in
strong to severe gusts may occur farther south in central IL. If
this occurs, this may be relatively short-lived, around a couple
hours, owing to southwesterly low-level flow roughly paralleling the
large-scale convective outflow and lack of stronger forcing for
ascent heading into sunrise.

..Grams/Edwards.. 08/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39649121 39829099 39949049 40328969 40208936 39998890
            39688874 39318871 38998881 38838920 38589004 38619084
            38819164 39649121 

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