ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042207 
SPC MCD 042207 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Areas affected...central and eastern Montana...western Dakotas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 042207Z - 050000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging wind to increase through the
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave moving eastward across Montana this
afternoon will provide forcing for ascent to erode MLCIN and result
in thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Across
central/eastern Montana, daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around
1000 J/kg. Surface objective analysis and forecast soundings also
show profiles with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, deeply mixed
profiles, and large dew point depressions which all favor downward
momentum transfer. Deep layer shear 30-40 kts should provide
organization for storms to grow upscale and present risk of damaging
wind. A watch may be needed in the next couple of hours.

..Thornton/Smith.. 08/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   45291035 46300982 46830821 46880619 46820505 46640392
            46410358 45940359 45710365 45400391 45220427 45050504
            45010572 44980656 44980762 44920981 44881010 45291035 

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