ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070655 
SPC MCD 070655 
NCZ000-SCZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Areas affected...Southeast NC into extreme northeast SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070655Z - 071000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will be possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...A band of convection along the east/northeast periphery
of Tropical Storm Debby's circulation has become somewhat more
well-defined early this morning. A theta-e/instability gradient
persists near the coast, with a narrow inland zone of MLCAPE near
1000 J/kg noted (per recent objective mesoanalyses and a modified
06Z sounding from KMHX) where temperatures remain near 80 F. 

The 06Z MHX sounding and recent VWPs from KMHX/KLTX depict 0-1 km
SRH of around 150-200 m2/s2 for observed cell motions, which is
sufficient to support at least transient low-level rotation with the
strongest cells. While ongoing convection has generally struggled to
become organized, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out
overnight as stronger embedded cells within the primary convective
band move inland and cross the near-coastal baroclinic zone.

..Dean/Edwards.. 08/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON   34147884 34387852 35037745 35037690 34857667 34427693
            33847770 33627823 33527882 33797896 34147884 

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