ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 212222 
SPC MCD 212222 
NEZ000-WYZ000-212315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1969
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Wyoming into western
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 212222Z - 212315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind and hail are possible
through evening. A WW issuance is not expected given the isolated
nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercells have developed over
the higher terrain, where MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts hail
possibly approaching severe limits in some of the stronger storm
cores. These storms are developing amid 8.5+ C/km low- and mid-level
lapse rates, that combined with 30+ kts of effective bulk shear (per
22Z mesoanalysis), should support some continued storm organization
through the remainder of the afternoon. Occasional severe gusts or
hail are the main threats. However, given the isolated nature of the
severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON   41030555 42490309 42890135 42470075 41720099 41310173
            41120303 41030449 41030555 

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