ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 301809 
SPC MCD 301809 
NCZ000-302015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Areas affected...much of central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301809Z - 302015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage from northern into
central North Carolina, with isolated damaging gusts possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible imagery show a cold front
extending from parts of western VA into northern/northeastern NC. A
moist and unstable air mass exists south of this front with MLCAPE
over 2000 J/kg, although midlevel lapse rates are poor and below 6.0
C/km. Storms are already forming along the front, as well as north
of the wind shift into southern VA.

As heating continues, steepening low-level lapse rates along with
ample precipitable water will support locally strong downdrafts.
Although winds aloft/shear are weak, clustering of storms near the
front may result in a few southward-propagating clusters as outflows
merge, yielding areas of strong or locally damaging gusts.

..Jewell/Bunting.. 08/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   35138022 35448072 35808083 36168070 36438023 36537969
            36517930 36297882 36117830 36047775 36117699 36267651
            36177618 36057602 35547588 35227639 34977666 34867692
            34757786 34967950 35138022 

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