ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 122052 
SPC MCD 122052 
MIZ000-122215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Areas affected...Southern Lake Michigan into southern lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122052Z - 122215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail cannot be ruled out into early evening as
storms move eastward.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently intensified over
southern Lake Michigan, after earlier producing small hail over
southeast WI. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection will allow a
plume of MUCAPE to expand east-northeastward through the remainder
of the afternoon, with MUCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000
J/kg range. While this magnitude of MUCAPE is not overly supportive
of large hail, sufficient effective shear will continue to support
storm organization, with small to briefly severe hail and locally
gusty winds possible as storms continue to move eastward into early
evening.

..Dean/Hart.. 10/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42938699 42928589 42868511 42768475 42398464 42058484
            41898512 41878580 41938623 42008666 42168706 42268714
            42938699 

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