ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 191935 
SPC MCD 191935 
NMZ000-192200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 191935Z - 192200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms are expected as convective coverage
increases this afternoon and well into the evening. Sporadic large
hail as well as a couple brief tornadoes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to increase across the
region, east of the slow-moving upper low. A north-south oriented
band of rain and storms has already formed near the 105.5 W
meridian, with brief indications of small hail thus far.

Continued heating will lead to further destabilization over the next
few hours with upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing with 40-50 kt
deep-layer shear. In addition, low-level southeasterlies are
enhancing low-level shear with 0-1 KM SRH values around 100 m2/s2,
sufficient for a brief tornado. 

As such, the risk of at least isolated severe storms will increase
this afternoon, and a watch may at least be considered as trends
dictate.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 10/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32690596 33830563 34700546 35160534 35470521 35880451
            35900380 35640353 35150342 34160363 32680429 32380476
            32230550 32290579 32500593 32690596 

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