ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 201958 
SPC MCD 201958 
NMZ000-COZ000-202230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Areas affected...Northern New Mexico/south-central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 201958Z - 202230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected through
this afternoon and evening, with small to near-severe size hail as
the primary hazard. A watch is not currently anticipated for these
storms.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were increasing in coverage and intensity
to the northeast of an upper low as of 1955z as ascent continues to
overspread the discussion area.  Generally weak buoyancy will limit
the overall intensity of storms and severe risk as the upper low
lifts northeast, however cool mid-level temperatures and supportive
shear profiles will result in storms capable of producing copious
amounts of small to possibly near-severe hail through early evening.
A watch is not expected for storms in this area.

Later this afternoon/evening, a more organized severe risk should
develop over eastern NM in the vicinity of a diffuse surface trough
and in an environment that will be supportive of supercells. 
Details regarding this severe threat will be addressed through
subsequent mesoscale discussions.

..Bunting/Hart.. 10/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

LAT...LON   36110664 36390709 37010734 37570705 37720637 37650479
            37370412 37140382 36880368 36590384 36440427 36280553
            36110664 

NNNN