ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 072304 
SPC MCD 072304 
TXZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Areas affected...part of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 072304Z - 080100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is slowly increasing with further
upscale growth possible into mid to late evening, accompanied by a
risk for severe hail initially, then perhaps a few strong surface
gusts later this evening.  The risk for tornadoes appears low, but
perhaps not out of the question.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is in the process of initiating
near/southwest through northwest of San Angelo.  This appears
focused along a diffuse dryline structure, near its intersection
with a baroclinic zone within broad weak surface troughing. 
Although mid-level lapse rates do not appear particularly steep, a
fairly deep moist boundary may be contributing to CAPE up to 1500
J/kg, beneath strong, broadly difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow.
 Despite generally weak to modest low-level forcing for ascent,
continuing moist unstable inflow in the presence of weakened
mid-level inhibition may be sufficient to support a gradual further
increase in convective development and upscale growth.  Given the
environment, this may be accompanied by a risk for severe hail in
stronger storms initially, then perhaps some increase in potential
for strong surface gusts later this evening as activity slowly
shifts northeastward/eastward.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 11/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31360098 32070070 32549982 31650004 31100038 30890090
            31070105 31360098 

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