Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
28,514
4,348,927
Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
St. Louis, MO...Madison, WI...Little Rock, AR...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
54,663
9,633,593
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
5 %
140,132
9,553,354
Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...Kansas City, KS...Waco, TX...
SPC AC 310055
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Valid 310100Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of severe winds and a few tornadoes remain
possible in a zone from central into northeast Oklahoma and into
western Missouri. A few destructive wind gusts can be anticipated.
...Discussion...
Storms continue to evolve along a cold front this evening, most
notably from north-central OK into southeast KS and into northwest
MO. Shear remains strong across the entire region, with low-level
shear supportive of rotation maximized beneath the low-level jet
from eastern OK into MO. The 00Z OUN sounding shows a supercell
hodograph especially for storms moving rightward off the
front/boundary.
Given the upper trough position, large-scale ascent appears to be
most favorable through late evening from northeast OK into western
MO, while farther south, ascent will be more heavily dependent on
the surface cold front, especially into northern TX tonight.
Damaging winds appear to be the most likely severe mode given storms
oriented/congealed along the boundary. However, embedded/QLCS type
tornadoes will be possible given such favorable low-level shear.
Overall instability is not particularly strong due to modest
midlevel lapse rates, but is clearly sufficient given other
favorable factors.
For more information see mesoscale discussions 2169, 2170, and 2171.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2024
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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