Mesoscale Discussion 0003
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

   Areas affected...western NC...western into central VA...far
   southeastern WV

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 060828Z - 061430Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain is forecast to develop from southwest to
   northeast through 10am EST.  Freezing rain rates will initially be
   light as the atmospheric column moistens, but rates are forecast to
   intensify into the 0.05-0.15 inch/3 hour range.  A transition from
   freezing rain to rain is forecast to occur over western NC into
   southern portions of western VA primarily during the 7-10am EST
   period.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic as of 325am EST shows an extensive
   precipitation shield across GA into western SC and moving northeast
   into the southern Appalachians.  This precipitation is in response
   to a mid-level shortwave trough moving northeast across the lower MS
   Valley early this morning.  This mid-level feature is forecast to
   move into the southern Appalachians during the morning.  Strong
   low-level warm-air advection and moistening via a warm conveyor belt
   are acting to enhance large-scale lift and contribute to a
   moistening atmospheric column during the pre-dawn hours across
   western NC into western/central VA.

   The latest ensemble model guidance (i.e., HREF, SREF) show agreement
   in depicting a swath of precipitation spreading north-northeast with
   hourly rates generally in the 0.05-0.15 inch range.  Forecast
   soundings indicate thermal profiles supporting freezing rain as the
   primary precipitation type from western NC northward through much of
   western VA and adjacent southeastern WV.  However, this shallow
   sub-freezing layer near the surface is forecast to slowly erode
   across western NC and southern parts of western VA as surface
   temperatures warm to 32 deg F or higher, primarily during the 7-10am
   EST period.  Farther north, some intermittent mixing of freezing
   rain and sleet is possible especially on the northern periphery of
   the discussion area (i.e., northwestern parts of VA).

   ..Smith.. 01/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...

   LAT...LON   37327841 36917897 36777954 36628003 36278078 35868160
               35548205 35308234 35378265 35428265 35958223 36278170
               36808133 37218127 37488119 37808091 38397955 38557864
               38467786 38217781 37327841