Mesoscale Discussion 0012
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

   Areas affected...north TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 081259Z - 081530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A developing squall line over western north TX will
   continue eastward across north TX this morning.  The risk for a
   strong gust is likely very low.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing squall line from near
   San Angelo northeastward to Wichita Falls.  The squall line is
   currently projected via linear extrapolation to move into the
   western suburbs of the DFW Metroplex around 11am CST (17 UTC). 
   Surface analysis indicates relatively cool temperatures (near 50 deg
   F) over north TX within a strong low-level warm-air advection
   regime.  The 12 UTC Fort Worth raob showed 500 J/kg MUCAPE with a
   cool/stable layer below 850 mb.  Additional temperature/moisture
   advection will gradually warm/moisten the lowest 0.5 km AGL, but
   overcast skies and showers preceding the squall line will limit
   heating this morning.  As a result, the propensity for surface-based
   instability will probably be negated and the squall line will likely
   remain elevated.  Given this expectation, the risk for strong gusts
   will be low in association with the passage of the squall line and a
   severe thunderstorm watch will likely not be needed.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 01/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33319861 33559678 33379642 33049634 32599641 32269669
               32029897 32359912 32719906 33319861