Mesoscale Discussion 0034
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern/Central North Carolina and southern
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 091832Z - 091930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong southeasterly flow is destabilizing eastern North
   Carolina and southern Virginia. This will increase the severe
   weather threat this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Instability is currently weak across much of North
   Carolina. However, southeasterly moisture advection is gradually
   destabilizing the airmass. By later this afternoon, some damaging
   wind threat is expected to materialize as the squall line moves into
   more substantial Gulf Stream moisture. Given the very strong wind
   field, even the current weak instability could support some damaging
   wind gusts with the threat increasing through the afternoon. The
   strong low-level speed and directional shear will support some
   tornado threat, but mid 60s dewpoints will likely be needed for a
   more substantial threat, which will not arrive until later this
   afternoon across eastern North Carolina.

   A watch will be issued soon to address this threat.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 01/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35618023 36108034 36448043 36758043 37017936 37117857
               37007748 36317702 35737698 34917672 34677671 34517703
               34247752 33807783 33677800 33687836 34707955 35618023