Mesoscale Discussion 0091
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1022 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

   Areas affected...parts of southeast and east central Mississippi
   into southwest and west central Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251622Z - 251815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development through Noon-2 PM
   CST may begin to pose at least some risk for tornadoes and locally
   damaging wind gusts.  While the need for a severe weather watch is
   still not certain, trends will continue to be monitored for this
   possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, along the leading edge of weak
   convective outflow advancing eastward and northeastward toward the
   Hattiesburg and Meridian vicinities, have tended to weaken the past
   couple of hours.  However, new discrete thunderstorm development has
   being occurring in advance of the outflow, and may be in the process
   of intensifying, along the eastern flank of a strengthening
   southerly low-level jet (including 40-50 kt around 850 mb).

   This coincides with a corridor of low-level moistening and
   destabilization, across southeastern Mississippi through the central
   Mississippi/Alabama border vicinity, where further erosion of a
   remnant shallow surface-based stable layer may allow for more
   substantive thunderstorm intensification by early afternoon.  In the
   presence of strong deep-layer shear, sizable clockwise curved
   low-level hodographs in advance of the convective outflow may become
   conducive to supercells with potential to produce tornadoes.  Closer
   to the approaching outflow boundary, low-level hodographs are
   generally forecast to become more linear, but strengthening
   convection could become conducive to increasing risk for potentially
   damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 01/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32068910 32918884 33148712 31768784 30838843 30288925
               30618956 31218944 32068910