Mesoscale Discussion 0118
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0840 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

   Areas affected...Edwards Plateau vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 110240Z - 110415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorm development is expected later
   tonight. The primary threat is expected to be very large hail,
   though there will also be some threat for isolated severe gusts and
   possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A vigorous mid/upper-level low is moving eastward
   across southern NM this evening, with an attendant jet maximum
   moving across northern Mexico. A surface boundary has gradually
   sagged southward this evening across parts of south-central TX, but
   this boundary may tend to stall as a surface low develops along the
   front in response to the approaching upper low. Near and north of
   the boundary, low-level east-southeasterly flow continues to
   transport moisture into parts of the Edwards Plateau, beneath steep
   midlevel lapse rates (as noted on regional 00Z soundings). 

   Intense thunderstorm development is expected later tonight, as
   large-scale ascent attendant to the upper low impinges upon an
   increasingly unstable environment, with MUCAPE expected to be in the
   1000-1500 J/kg range at the time of initiation. Strong deep-layer
   shear will support organized storm structures, including the
   potential for supercells and perhaps some upscale growth with time.
   With steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold temperatures
   aloft, any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large
   hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter). 

   Storms are generally expected to remain somewhat elevated
   along/north of the surface boundary. However, any storm that can be
   sustained near the boundary and become surface-based could also pose
   a threat of a tornado, given favorable low-level shear/SRH. Any
   near-surface-based storm or stronger elevated cluster could also
   pose some threat for isolated severe gusts. Watch issuance is likely
   prior to 04Z.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 02/11/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32020131 32250070 32260000 32219871 31139816 29779842
               29429859 29119903 28989977 29080058 29420109 29770142
               31000159 32020131