Mesoscale Discussion 0138
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0731 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

   Areas affected...western Florida Panhandle into parts of
   southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121331Z - 121600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms, including supercells
   with the potential to produce tornadoes, still seems likely to
   increase inland of coastal areas.  However, an appreciable increase
   in severe probabilities may not occur until closer to midday (10
   AM-Noon CST), across the Tallahassee vicinity into southwestern
   Georgia, between Albany and Valdosta.  A new Tornado Watch will
   probably be needed at some point, though it remains uncertain if by
   the scheduled expiration of Tornado Watch 22.

   DISCUSSION...Stronger recent thunderstorm development is now focused
   within a narrow plume of better pre-frontal low-level moisture
   return off the Gulf of Mexico, across the western Florida Panhandle
   into parts of southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.  While
   the boundary-layer across this region has yet to destabilize
   appreciably, it appears that this will begin to change through
   midday.  

   It is not clear how much insolation and boundary-layer mixing will
   contribute, but forecast soundings suggest that, as a surface
   cyclone begins to deepen more rapidly across western Alabama,
   low-level thermal and moisture advection will contribute to more
   rapid modification beneath a cooling mid-level environment.  This
   may not occur until later this morning through midday (16-18Z),
   across the Tallahassee vicinity into southwestern Georgia between
   Albany and Valdosta.  However, once it does, Rapid Refresh forecast
   soundings suggest that this will coincide with enlarging,
   clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and strengthening deep-layer
   shear, supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes,
   in addition to severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 02/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30818645 31908481 31698386 30808409 29558526 28728649
               28998731 29588715 30818645