Mesoscale Discussion 0146
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024

   Areas affected...much of Arkansas and from the ArkLaTex into
   northwest Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161826Z - 162130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated strong storms capable of producing hail
   are expected to form over parts of Arkansas this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push into northeast TX and
   into northern and western AR, while warming and destabilization take
   place to the east. Visible satellite shows areas of heating over AR
   with only thin high clouds extending southwestward into TX. Very
   cold temperatures exist aloft, and as such, continued heating
   combined with mid to upper 50s F dewpoints will be more than
   sufficient to result in an uncapped air mass.

   Forecast soundings show the potential for low-topped but robust
   thunderstorms, while veering low-level flow roughly parallel to the
   front favors cells capable of hail. Some boundary layer mixing of
   the dewpoints may occur, but heating is expected to compensate, with
   storms forming near the cold front later this afternoon.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 02/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   35169093 34819086 34339100 33789162 33309280 33009375
               32909419 33159462 33769473 34969370 35579306 35679217
               35509140 35169093