Mesoscale Discussion 0238
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into central Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...

   Valid 142055Z - 142200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Tornado Watch 43.
   Organizing supercells will pose an increasing risk for large to very
   large hail, damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2055 UTC, radar and satellite observations showed
   maturing supercells ongoing across eastern MO near the St. Louis
   Metro. The downstream environment remains very favorable for
   supercells. These storms have shown increasingly strong mid-level
   rotation over the last hour. Area VAD wind profiles show long but
   straight, hodographs supportive of large to very large hail. Hail
   could exceed 2-3 inches in the strongest storms given very favorable
   shear and buoyancy distributions. Experimental WOFS guidance also
   suggests strong mid-level UH probabilities downstream of the
   evolving storms. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are also
   possible given the storm mode. Thus, the severe risk across WW43
   continues.

   ..Lyons.. 03/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38448795 39318760 40268763 40598809 40678908 40349002
               39929091 39669162 39119217 38689212 37949137 37719071
               37649023 37688954 38228842 38448795