Mesoscale Discussion 0246
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0727 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Northeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...46...

   Valid 150027Z - 150230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45, 46
   continues.

   SUMMARY...All severe hazards, including large hail, wind damage and
   a potential for a few tornadoes are expected over the next couple
   hours from southeast Oklahoma into northeast Texas
   east-northeastward into central Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are currently ongoing from
   the vicinity of the Red River north of Dallas, east-northeastward
   into southwest Arkansas. The storms are located just to the north
   and west of a pocket of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is near
   or above 2500 J/kg. The cluster of strong to severe storms will
   continue to move eastward into the stronger instability over the
   next couple of hours. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear,
   will help sustain the stronger updrafts making large hail likely
   with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will
   be possible with the strongest of updrafts. In addition, low-level
   shear is forecast to gradually increase, as a 40 knot jet develops
   across the Ark-La-Tex early this evening. In response, the tornado
   threat may continue. The WOFS currently is forecasting a locally
   greater tornado risk from Little Rock extending west-southwestward
   to near the Oklahoma-Arkansas state line over the next couple of
   hours.

   ..Broyles.. 03/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35379388 35239546 34919623 34189659 33459663 33229639
               33289579 33429447 33689296 33949204 34509149 35049140
               35419208 35379388