Mesoscale Discussion 0274
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0518 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

   Areas affected...Middle TX Coastal Plain

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211018Z - 211215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is still expected to occur across
   parts of the Middle Texas Coastal Plain through mid-morning.
   Environment remains conditionally favorable for a couple supercells,
   with a primary threat of large hail.

   DISCUSSION...Earlier expectations for sustained thunderstorm
   development across the Middle TX Coastal Plain have failed to
   materialize appreciably over land. It appears the remnant elevated
   mixed layer has provided sufficient capping to deter storms, west of
   the northwest Gulf. But with a 30-35 kt low-level jet per the CRP
   VWP, in conjunction with numerous light showers, at some point deep
   convection should become sustained. This scenario continues to be
   well-advertised, albeit delayed, in early morning guidance. Once
   this occurs, the environment should be characterized by favorable
   deep-layer speed shear and an elongated hodograph, supporting
   mid-level updraft rotation. Large hail still appears to be the
   primary threat with sustained convection tending to be at least
   slightly elevated, north of the upper 60s surface dew points plume
   that has reached Aransas Bay.

   ..Grams/Thompson.. 03/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   27589692 28289809 29039791 29689656 29459557 29039509
               28709509 27589692