Mesoscale Discussion 0398
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of east TX into western/northern LA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...

   Valid 091852Z - 092015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple
   tornadoes may continue eastward into east Texas and western/northern
   Louisiana. A downstream watch is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...A small bowing cluster/MCV has recently developed
   across east-central TX along or perhaps just north of the surface
   boundary. Gradual airmass recovery is occurring downstream across
   east TX into western/northern LA, where surface temperatures have
   mostly warmed into the 70s amid persistent easterly near-surface
   flow. Weak MLCAPE coupled with strong deep-layer shear may be
   sufficient for continued organization to the small cluster as it
   moves eastward through the rest of the afternoon. Assuming
   sufficient destabilization can occur to support truly surface-based
   convection, then damaging winds may be the primary severe threat.
   Sufficient low-level shear is also present along the boundary to
   support an isolated tornado threat, especially if any supercells can
   develop ahead of the ongoing cluster. Depending on convective
   trends, a downstream watch may be needed for parts of east TX into
   western/northern/LA.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32149585 32399522 32449274 32239212 31499206 31289244
               31109442 31269615 31669589 32149585