Mesoscale Discussion 0513
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   Areas affected...northeast Colorado into much of northwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 251923Z - 252200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to rapidly develop along the boundary
   from northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas, and far southwest
   Nebraska. Very large hail is likely, along with a few tornadoes and
   damaging gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating persists across the region, now on both
   sides of a stationary front extending from northeast CO into
   northwest KS. Southeasterly surface winds have brought 50s F
   dewpoints westward into CO, which is contributing to up to 2000 J/kg
   MUCAPE within the narrow moist plume. Moderate southwest flow aloft
   atop the backed low-level southeasterlies is further aiding shear
   near the boundary which strongly favors long-lived severe storms.
   Supercells or bows will be possible producing very large hail, a few
   tornadoes and damaging gusts.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38840054 38690063 38620074 38550110 38870201 39380281
               39530324 39720340 39990338 40240327 40400311 40480274
               40470196 40420132 40240087 39970060 39580042 39020048
               38840054