Mesoscale Discussion 0752
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of central New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111858Z - 112100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms within the higher terrain of central New Mexico may
   produce large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a brief
   tornado. A watch is not anticipated this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent is increasing this afternoon across
   portions of central New Mexico. Despite dewpoints in the 40s F, this
   has allowed convection to develop on the higher terrain. A few
   low-topped storms are possible this afternoon. Long hodographs and
   around -17 C temperatures at 500 mb should promote some risk for
   large hail. These storms will progress northeastward, but will
   encounter a more stable environment at lower elevations. That said,
   storms may peak in intensity over the next 1-2 hours. A storm west
   of Los Alamos did show some signs of stronger low-level rotation in
   the last 30 minutes. The KABX VAD profile has modest low-level
   turning. The tornado threat will be tempered by the limited spatial
   extent of a favorable environment and generally marginally intense
   storms, but a brief tornado is at least possible.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/11/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34980722 36020720 36410666 36200577 35550545 34660518
               34190554 34220613 34980722