Mesoscale Discussion 0983
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...portions of far southeast Wisconsin into Northeast
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262026Z - 262200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat exists, including the
   potential for a tornado or a couple bouts of strong wind gusts/hail.
   Given the isolated and brief nature of the severe threat, a WW
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is occurring within the warm sector
   ahead of the surface low along the WI/IL border, with diurnal
   heating supporting temperatures approaching the 70 F mark amid mid
   60s F dewpoints. Ahead of a surface trough, where SBCAPE is
   exceeding 1000 J/kg, surface wind remain backed, with substantial
   veering and strengthening of the low-level wind field contributing
   to elongated and curved hodographs. 20Z mesoanalysis show over 200
   m2/s2 effective SRH in place. As such, any storm that can develop
   ahead of the surface trough axis before surface winds veer may pose
   a brief tornado threat, along with strong wind gusts and some hail.
   Confidence in this conditional scenario is not overly high,
   precluding a WW issuance at this time.

   ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41588919 42598920 43068869 43098821 42718780 42228768
               41768790 41488857 41588919