Mesoscale Discussion 1002
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0926 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...Central/East-Central into Northeast AR

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 320...

   Valid 270226Z - 270400Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues.

   SUMMARY...New development may occur across central/east-central into
   northeast AR. The environment is supportive of supercells and
   convective trends are be monitored closely. An expansion of ongoing
   Tornado Watches or a new Tornado Watch may be needed if trends
   merit.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows greater vertical
   development within the cumulus over central AR, with radar returns
   increasing in this area as well. This appears to be related to a
   modest area of low-level confluence ahead of the primary wind shift
   which remains farther northwest. The 00Z LZK sounding sampled a very
   unstable airmass, with MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Strong vertical shear
   extends across the region as well, with the 00Z LZK sounding
   sampling 55 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear and the recent LZK VAD sampling
   over 30 kt of 0-1 km bulk shear. These environmental conditions are
   more than sufficient for robust updrafts and supercells if dry-air
   entrainment can be overcome. Convective trends will be monitored
   closely and an expansion of ongoing Tornado Watches or a new Tornado
   Watch may be needed if trends merit.

   ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35569188 36049089 35929002 35559011 34469069 34089188
               34729292 35569188