Mesoscale Discussion 1322
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0318 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

   Areas affected...central to northeast MN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 433...

   Valid 182018Z - 182145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 433 continues.

   SUMMARY...Primary tornado threat within WW 433 into early evening
   appears to exist across central to northeast Minnesota with
   semi-discrete supercells near the surface warm front.

   DISCUSSION...More prominent, deeper convection within WW 433 has
   been centered across west-central to northeast MN. Multiple,
   low-level supercells have been noted along the surface warm front
   thus far from central MN northeastward. Additional supercells may
   develop farther south-southwest with modified 18Z MPX sounding
   indicative of MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-1 km SRH around 200
   m2/s2. With weak effective shear above the LCL, tornado and damaging
   wind should remain the primary threats as hail magnitudes remain
   marginal. These threats will likely focus through early evening from
   the Brainerd Lakes to the Iron Range and Arrowhead regions.

   ..Grams.. 06/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47239393 47779219 48069146 48179108 48089063 47979043
               47669095 47179179 46869228 46289254 45979311 45729482
               45799522 46189542 46669459 47239393