Mesoscale Discussion 1359
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

   Areas affected...Much of Central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 211955Z - 212130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected in the next couple of
   hours in a region of enhanced ascent near a surface low in SW NE. A
   severe thunderstorm watch is likely needed for damaging winds and
   large hail into this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A surface cyclone has developed in SW NE along a
   stationary front, with a region of cumulus development located just
   south of the cyclone center in far NW KS. Surface temperatures have
   warmed into the low 90s F, with dewpoints in the mid 60s F in NW KS,
   increasing into the upper 60s F along and N of the surface boundary
   in NE. SPC Mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE > 1500 J/kg, with deep layer
   shear in the 35-40kt range, increasing to 45 kts N of the boundary. 


   Convective initiation is expected within the 20-21Z time frame in
   far NW KS and SW NE, spreading NE along the stationary front. Given
   the large surface T/Td spreads, along with RAP forecast profiles
   showing a deep, well-mixed boundary layer and some curvature of the
   hodograph, the primary threat appears to be for damaging
   straight-line winds and large hail. 

   Uncertainty remains in storm mode and coverage, especially further
   southeast of the boundary. However, a severe thunderstorm watch is
   likely for much of the discussion area.

   ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40090207 40330220 40540220 40740223 40930226 41190218
               41450190 41680169 41830143 41990107 42130080 42290035
               42420004 42549973 42659924 42779875 42839805 42889744
               42879689 42779658 42549641 42279641 42059643 41789677
               41509717 41299754 41089789 40979810 40859828 40699873
               40569908 40419939 40319972 40190004 40060045 39860091
               39740129 39680178 39800193 40090207