Mesoscale Discussion 1393
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1140 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241640Z - 241815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
   afternoon/evening across southeast Virginia and eastern North
   Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop across southeast
   Virginia and northeast North Carolina in a hot/unstable airmass
   featuring temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. This
   has yielded 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and an uncapped atmosphere. Initial
   storms have shown occasional supercellular characteristics with some
   multicell clustering also apparent. This storm organization can
   likely be attributed to the 30-35 knot westerly flow aloft apparent
   on the AKQ VWP.

   Expect additional storms to form along and ahead of the cold front
   as it sags south across eastern North Carolina. The modest shear
   combined with strong instability will permit a continued damaging
   wind threat through the afternoon and evening. A severe thunderstorm
   watch may be needed to cover this threat.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34957919 36057830 37237640 37257573 36907573 36367562
               36017540 35617538 35157548 34927608 34547647 34517665
               34617683 34227768 34957919