Mesoscale Discussion 1512
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

   Areas affected...far northern Oklahoma...portions of
   south-central/central and northeastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 022054Z - 022300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of thunderstorm activity is expected
   to continue through the late afternoon/evening, posing a risk for
   mainly damaging wind.

   DISCUSSION...A southeastward moving cold front will be the focus for
   additional thunderstorm development across far northern Oklahoma
   into central and northeastern Kansas this afternoon. Daytime heating
   has led to temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s across much of
   this region, with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s and MLCAPE
   around 1000-2000 J/kg in mesoanalysis. Given the best shear is
   largely north of the cold front, mode is expected to be loosely
   organized clusters. Steep low-level lapse rates and deeply mixed
   profiles will support a risk for mainly damaging winds. A watch may
   be needed for part of this region to cover this threat in the next
   1-2 hours.

   ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37609986 38429886 39459728 39819629 39629573 39469559
               39119533 38279608 37039817 36839869 36929932 37009977
               37079991 37409990 37609986