Mesoscale Discussion 1517
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0702 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

   Valid 030002Z - 030130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Convective threat will increase across northeast Kansas
   and northern Missouri this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Southern influence of central Plains short-wave trough
   is beginning to affect the lower MO Valley region. Height falls will
   glance northeast KS/northern MO this evening and this should
   encourage a gradual expansion of convection along/ahead of surface
   front. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to strengthen into northern MO
   in response to the approaching short wave. This is expected to aid a
   potential MCS that will sag southeast across a reservoir of strong
   buoyancy (3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Primary risk remains damaging winds.

   ..Darrow.. 07/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38509576 39829378 40179163 39689145 39149393 38139533
               38509576