Mesoscale Discussion 1709
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0625 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

   Areas affected...Lower Deserts of Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252325Z - 260130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are gradually expanding in
   areal coverage over the higher terrain early this evening. This
   activity has developed within a weak-flow regime that favors
   southward propagation toward lower-desert regions. Latest diagnostic
   data suggests a modest corridor of MLCAPE exists from Maricopa
   county to near the international border. Convection that spreads
   into this airmass may generate gusty winds as PW values are in
   excess of 1.5 inches, and sub-cloud (3km AGL) RH is fairly low. At
   this time current thinking is the severe gust potential may be a bit
   too isolated to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. Will continue
   to monitor for convective organization.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 07/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31871308 33561268 33401101 32490979 31261023 31871308