Mesoscale Discussion 2200
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

   Areas affected...parts of the South Plains...northwest Texas and far
   southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 040537Z - 040800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form after 06Z tonight over
   parts of west/northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma. Hail will
   be the primary risk.

   DISCUSSION...Height falls will persist tonight with the upper
   trough, while low pressure develops over western TX and into western
   OK through early morning. In response, low-level winds will increase
   out of the south, resulting in a northward return of theta-e and
   subsequent destabilization.

   Currently, modest moistening is occurring over parts of the Permian
   Basin, though GPS water vapor sensors show only minor increases in
   PWAT.  However, this should evolve rapidly tonight as wind speeds
   increase.  Given cool temperatures aloft, this warm/moist advection
   will likely yield a zone of thunderstorms developing from the South
   Plains into southwest Oklahoma late.

   Initial activity may not be severe, but as moisture accelerates
   northwestward overnight, severe hail is expected.  Both cold air
   aloft, and lengthening hodographs with 60-70 kt deep-layer shear
   will favor hail.  As such, trends will be monitored over the coming
   hours for a possible watch.

   ..Jewell/Smith.. 11/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34749902 34199929 33489990 32390162 32540214 33280203
               34120132 34750040 34989975 34969917 34749902