Mesoscale Discussion 2292
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into southwestern
   Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272116Z - 272245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat should persist for at least a
   few more hours.

   DISCUSSION...Transient supercell structures have supported sparse
   tornado development this afternoon despite gradually weakening
   low-level shear profiles. Given modest surface heating, surface
   temperatures have warmed to near 70 F, contributing up to 1000 J/kg
   MLCAPE (per 21Z mesoanalysis) where surface dewpoints have climbed
   to the upper 60s F. The best low-level moisture and dewpoints reside
   roughly from Jones County, MS to the Mobile Bay area, and this is
   where the most robust thunderstorm development (with strong
   low-level rotation and/or tornadoes) has occurred. Given the limited
   overlap of the best low-level shear and moisture, a localized
   tornado threat may persist for only a few more hours.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30258926 30588961 31088964 32348895 32798852 32848815
               32508796 31958789 31398759 30958716 30608708 30278734
               30098841 30258926