Mesoscale Discussion 0384
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0639 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas. northwest Mississippi...and far
   southwest Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...109...

   Valid 032339Z - 040115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107, 109 continues.

   SUMMARY...The primary risk appears to be large hail. While much less
   likely, damaging winds and/or a brief tornado cannot be entirely
   ruled out on a very localized basis.

   DISCUSSION...Several elevated supercell clusters are tracking
   northeastward across portions of southern AR and northwest MS -- to
   the north of a stationary boundary draped across northern MS into
   far southern AR. The LZK/NQA VWPs continue to sample a very
   elongated/straight hodograph, with around 60-70 kt of effective
   shear north of the boundary. This, along with steep midlevel lapse
   rates atop a cool/stable boundary layer (yielding 2500-3000 J/kg
   MUCAPE), will continue to favor elevated supercell structures
   capable of producing large hail (generally upwards of 2 inches in
   diameter). 

   Given the elevated nature of these storms, and limited potential for
   northward movement of the boundary and related warm sector, the
   tornado and damaging-wind risks appears low. With that said, if
   these storms can intercept any localized pockets of surface-based
   instability north of the boundary, large low-level streamwise
   vorticity would support a tornado risk.

   ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34169246 34889111 35449017 35538974 35448937 35118910
               34738929 34109045 33449220 33529259 33849263 34169246 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN