Mesoscale Discussion 0072
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0641 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of middle/eastern TN into southeast KY and
   far southwest VA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4...

   Valid 070041Z - 070215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado or two, hail, and damaging wind
   will continue through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell has gradually matured over the last 1-2
   hours to the northeast of Nashville, while other cells continue to
   develop and intensify near and just north of a surface boundary
   across southeast KY. Some increase in low-level flow/shear was noted
   earlier from the KOHX VWP, with short-term guidance suggesting that
   low-level flow will continue to increase this evening as ongoing
   convection spreads eastward into eastern TN and far southeast
   KY/southwest VA. With nocturnal cooling/stabilization expected to be
   only gradual through the evening, MLCAPE will likely remain in the
   500-1000 J/kg range in advance of the ongoing convection, with
   favorable deep-layer shear continuing to support supercell
   structures and potentially one or more semi-organized clusters. 

   With only a slow increase in MLCINH expected, ongoing supercells may
   persist through much of the evening, with some potential tendency
   toward modest upscale growth with time. While low-level flow remains
   rather veered, effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will support
   some tornado threat with any persistent right-moving supercells.
   Otherwise, isolated large hail will be possible, especially with any
   left-moving supercells, while damaging wind could accompany any
   stronger supercells or organized clusters.

   ..Dean.. 02/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   37188239 36728210 36528206 36028259 35718317 35648440
               35698527 35888546 36518537 36898492 37048449 37268346
               37278306 37188239