(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040822
SPC AC 040822
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the
eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that
pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front
by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast
across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front
could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be
possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the
timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains
questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability,
suggesting predictability is low for Monday.
On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the
central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit
any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday.
...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level
trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and
eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the
trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central
Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most
likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from
the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe
potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on
Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats.
During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain
relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough
is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from
Wednesday to Friday.
..Broyles.. 04/04/2025
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