(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030822
SPC AC 030822
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to
Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east
from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast.
On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR
and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this
time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing
along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the
Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is
expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be
higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable.
The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue
into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk
should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but
low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas.
For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern
will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building
over the West, and northwest flow across the central states.
Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep
conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS.
..Jewell.. 04/03/2025
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