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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 20, 2024
Updated: Wed Nov 20 09:07:02 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Sat, Nov 23, 2024 - Sun, Nov 24, 2024 D7Tue, Nov 26, 2024 - Wed, Nov 27, 2024
D5Sun, Nov 24, 2024 - Mon, Nov 25, 2024 D8Wed, Nov 27, 2024 - Thu, Nov 28, 2024
D6Mon, Nov 25, 2024 - Tue, Nov 26, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 200905
   SPC AC 200905

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0305 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

   Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An upper trough will move out of the northeastern states from Sat/D4
   into Sun/D5, with the ridge flattening over the Plains. This will
   result in a broad belt of near zonal flow across much of the CONUS,
   with perhaps a slight propensity for cyclonic height curvature over
   the Great Lakes into eastern Canada.

   Low-level moisture return will occur gradually, especially from
   Mon/D6 onward when 60s dewpoints may extend from eastern TX into the
   lower MS Valley. However, not until around Tue Night/D7 do most
   models show any appreciable instability, and even then it will
   likely be weak. As such, severe storms are not forecast. However, a
   few strong storms cannot be ruled out by around Wed/D8 due to
   several days of persistent moistening, especially if a shortwave
   trough can amplify within the strong flow regime.

   ..Jewell.. 11/20/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: November 20, 2024
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