SPC AC 180727

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NEBRASKA...KANSAS...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Nebraska and
   Kansas into western Iowa and northwest Missouri Monday afternoon
   into Monday night. More isolated strong to severe storms may extend
   into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and southern Wisconsin.

   ...Synopsis...

   An upper shortwave trough is expected to be located over the Lower
   MO Valley early Monday. This trough will lift northeast across the
   upper Great Lakes through Monday night. Meanwhile, a broad area of
   southwesterly flow will continued across the southern/central Plains
   east of a deepening upper trough over the western U.S. Deep-layer
   flow will become more amplified and stronger across the central
   Plains after 00z, as the western trough ejects east toward the High
   Plains by early Tuesday. 

   At the surface, a cold front will be located from the eastern
   Dakotas into central NE. This front will continue to shift east
   through the evening before stalling from southern MN into eastern NE
   and central KS. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will
   result in a broad area of low to mid 60s F dew points from the
   Mid/Upper MS Valley into the central/southern Plains. 

   ...KS/NE into southwest IA/northwest MO...

   Large-scale ascent will be nebulous through the afternoon, and
   capping will likely suppress convection through at least
   mid-afternoon. Thereafter, vertical shear will increase along with
   stronger ascent spreading into the Plains during the
   evening/overnight as the western trough ejects east. Thunderstorm
   clusters may initiate by early evening, with the potential for MCS
   development during the nighttime hours. Convective initiation and
   evolution is a bit uncertain given several rounds of convection
   expected for portions of the region prior to Monday evening.
   However, the overall large-scale pattern supports severe convection
   capable of all hazards into early Tuesday morning.

   ...Lower MO Valley to WI...

   Convection may be ongoing Monday morning from the MO River into
   central IA, northward into northern WI. How this convection evolves
   is a bit uncertain. However, some severe potential appears possible
   into the afternoon, as at least modest destabilization occurs amid
   somewhat favorable vertical shear. Hail and strong gusts will be
   possible with this activity through Monday evening.

   ..Leitman.. 05/18/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z