SPC AC 130727

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

   ...Eastern NC...
   Timing of surface cold front passage Tuesday late morning to
   afternoon remains crucial as to whether thunderstorms can form and
   intensify over land, before becoming entirely confined off the
   coast. Guidance, except for the UKMET, has generally been trending
   towards a slightly faster frontal passage over the past couple days.
   This suggests the window of opportunity for sustained severe
   development should be rather limited. Conditionally, strong wind
   profiles support potential for an organized storm or two around
   early afternoon. For now, have opted to defer on possible level
   1-MRGL risk.

   ...Southwest...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible downstream of a
   low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving northeast from the Lower CO
   Valley, and a separate trough off the CA coast. Meager buoyancy and
   weak deep-layer shear will minimize severe potential.

   ..Grams.. 04/13/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z