SPC AC 140046

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

   Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general
   thunderstorms are the primary risk.

   ...01z Update...

   Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
   trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with
   earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is
   spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that
   currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a
   brief gust or two may be noted with lagging convection early this
   evening, severe threat appears too meager to maintain severe
   probabilities.

   Upstream, an intense 500mb jet max is digging southeast across the
   northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will translate along the
   international border into southern NM by the end of the period,
   increasing in strength to near 115kt by sunrise. Cool, steep lapse
   rates north of this jet favors weak convection that will spread
   across the southwestern U.S. into the southern Rockies late tonight.
   Gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, but storm-driven
   severe gusts are not anticipated.

   ..Darrow.. 03/14/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z